Another view on sulphur 2020:
The global sulphur cap goes a long way to cut harmful emissions but will not be as transformative for the shipping industry nor as disruptive for oil markets as might be excepted.
Industy consolidation and shipping innovation have already unlocked substantial fuel savings that are poorly captured in statistics. With the digitalization set to further reduce the oil intensity of shipping, oil demand growth from the marine sector will likely remain below forecast, which will help blunt the effect of the global cap.
Postponing the rules, as some have advised, would not necessarily give industry more time to prepare. The wait-and-see approach taken by many shipowners is a cautious and rational response to market risks, compounded by potential feedback effects and regulatory uncertainty.