Scrubber uptake and HSFO demand for IMO 2020 is being underestimated, according to Goldman Sachs, who is predicting HSFO demand could fall by less than 50% when the global 0.50% sulfur cap on marine comes into force January 1, 2020
The vast majority of the world’s 50,000 strong fleet is expected to switch to complaint fuel when the IMO 2020 rule comes into force.
Vessels fitted with scrubbers that enable them to continue burning HSFO, along with noncompliance, has been widely expected to keep global HSFO demand at between 5% to 10% of total demand.
But Goldman sees the recent momentum for scrubber adoption continuing to build, forecasting 3,125 installations in 2020, triple the ~1,000 vessels currently thought to have scrubber systems installed or order.
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